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People’s CDC COVID-19 Weather Report

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The Weather

As of October 25, 2024, national wastewater levels are being reported as being “Low.” However, the CDC’s national wastewater map continues to show 3 states with “High,” 14 states with “Moderate”, 20 states with “Low”, and 13 states and Washington DC with “Minimal” wastewater levels. There is no data reported for Guam, North Dakota, and the US Virgin Islands. This variation in wastewater levels across the different states indicate that COVID transmission is not at low levels and that it continues to circulate across the country and an important reminder to continue to take layers of precaution, especially at healthcare settings.

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of maroon, orange, and gray displaying SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Viral Activity level as of October 25, 2024, where deeper tones correlate to higher viral activity and gray indicates “No Data.” Text above the map reads ‘“Moderate to High” Levels in 17 states’. The remaining states and DC show “Low” or “Minimal” levels. Data is unavailable for Guam, North Dakota, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At the bottom, the text reads People’s CDC. Source: CDC.

Graphic source: CDC

According to the Wastewater COVID-19 National and Regional Trends dashboard, COVID wastewater levels continue to decrease nationally, including in the West, South, and Northeast with a slight increase in the Midwest. In order to access local COVID wastewater levels, you can refer to the CDC’s state/territory trends page as well as the WastewaterSCAN dashboard.

A line graph with the title, “COVID-19 Wastewater Trends as of October 25, 2024” with “Wastewater Viral Activity Level” indicated on the left-hand vertical axis, going from 0-12, and “Week Ending” across the horizontal axis, with date labels ranging from October 21, 2023 to September 21, 2024. Text above the graph reads “Viral Levels are Decreasing: Continue to Exercise Precautions.” A gray bar highlights provisional data for the most recent 2 weeks. A key at the bottom indicates line colors. National is black, Midwest is orange, South is purple, Northeast is light blue, and West is green. Overall, levels are trending downward in the Northeast, the West, and the South with a slight increase in the Midwest. Text at the bottom reads “People’s CDC.

Graphic source: CDC

As of October 22, 2024, COVID transmission levels are “growing” nationally and “likely growing” in 7 states and territories according to the CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics dashboard. Eighteen states have reached “not changing” levels, and 23 states are seeing “declining” or “likely declining”, while levels are “not estimated” at 3 states. 

Note, this model utilizes emergency department visit data to estimate COVID transmission’s Rt, which is an estimate of the average number of new infections caused by each infectious person. An Rt greater than 1.0 indicates that infections are growing, while an Rt less than 1.0 indicates that they’re declining. 

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of purple and gray displaying the CDC COVID Model: Current Epidemic Growth Status based on emergency department visits as of October 22, 2024, where purple tones indicate growing or likely growing, teal tones indicate declining or likely declining, and gray indicates “Not Changing.” States without predictions are represented in white, labeled “Not Estimated.” Text above the map reads “CDC Estimates Transmission is “Growing” Nationally and “Likely Growing” in 7 states.” 23 states and Washington DC are light to dark teal and have “Declining” or “Likely Declining” status. All other states are either “Not Changing” or “Not Estimated.” Text at the bottom reads “People’s CDC. Source: CDC.”

Graphic source: CDC

According to the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, this past summer experienced higher death rates compared to the late months of 2023 and early months of 2024, with nearly 1,325 deaths per week. The last time this occurred was during the winter months of 2024. This total count of weekly COVID deaths remains an underestimate due to limited COVID testing and reporting. The loss of these lives could have been prevented if layers of protections were consistently implemented in preventing infections. Beginning November 1, 2024, healthcare facilities will once again report on the number of hospitalized patients with COVID and new hospital admissions with COVID as required by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and facilitated by the CDC. It is invaluable that all healthcare systems participate as case data is paramount for keeping track with current COVID trends and understanding the volume of healthcare-acquired COVID infections. 

Variants

According to the CDC’s variant tracking dashboard, KP.3.1.1 remains the dominant variant of all currently circulating strains since it began dominant four weeks ago. Nowcast modeling projects that KP.3.1.1 will increase to 57% by 10/26/2024 while another variant, XEC (a combination of JN.1, KS.1.1, and KP.3.3), is expected to grow to 17%, KP.2.3 to decrease to 5%, followed by MC.1 at 5%, and LB.1 at 4%. With the most prevalent circulating variants being JN.1-derived—closely related to both JN.1 and KP.2—an updated vaccination with any of the available options (Pfizer, Moderna, or Novavax) remains likely effective in protecting against severe illness, death, and potentially infection and Long COVID.

Two stacked bar charts with two-week periods for sample collection dates on the horizontal x-axis and percentage of viral lineages among infections on the vertical y-axis. Title of the first bar chart reads “Weighted Estimates: Variant proportions based on reported genomic sequencing results” with collection dates ranging from 7/20/2024 to 9/28/2024. The second chart’s title reads “Nowcast: model-based projected estimates of variant proportions,” dates labeled 10/12/24 and 10/26/24. Within the 10/26 Nowcast projections, KP.3.1.1 (light teal) is at 57%, XEC (green) increases to 17%, KP.2.3 (blue) decreases to 12.2%, MC.1 (ochre) increases to 5%, and LB.1 decreases to 4%. Other variants are at smaller percentages represented by a handful of other colors as small slivers. The legend with a list of variants, proportions, and their associated colors is on the far right of the bar charts.

Graphic source: CDC Variant Tracker

Vaccines, Testing, and Treatment

COVID vaccines remain one of the most important steps among the layers of protection against a COVID infection or serious health outcome, especially for people under the age of 18. A recent study showed that children under 6 months of age had the highest COVID hospitalization rate and unvaccinated adolescents had more severe illness, who are more frequently admitted to the intensive care unit. The CDC also reported similar findings among those under 6 months of age, highlighting the importance of vaccination among pregnant populations. As access to COVID vaccines remains difficult due to the CDC Bridge Program ending August 2024, especially for those uninsured or underinsured, it is important to continue checking with your state or local health department—some states including California’s Bridge Access Program and other departments of health have set aside support for funding for no-cost access to COVID vaccines. Ultimately, we need the federal government to contribute more resources to ensure no-cost access for all. We continue to demand the federal government to provide continued funding for the Bridge Access Program as well as the Vaccines for Adults Program. 

The CDC recently provided updated guidelines permitting access to twice a year COVID vaccinations for older adults aged 65 and older and those immunocompromised. We thank many of you for sending in public comments urging the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to grant twice a year access to all ages and demographics. We will continue to advocate for this as vaccine immunity wanes after four to six months.

Testing for COVID is important. No-cost COVID rapid antigen tests continue to be available and can be ordered to your home address within several weeks. Through the CDC’s Increasing Community Access to Testing (ICATT) program, no-cost access to COVID testing access is limited to those who are uninsured or underinsured at places including CVS, Walgreens, eTrueNorth, and other local sites as well as in New York City, which is supported by the NY Department of Public Health.

We continue to urge those with COVID infection to seek treatment including the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). Although the Test-to-Treat program prematurely ended, there continue to be programs available to ensure financial access to Paxlovid.

Wins

All of us have an important voice in demanding our local, state, and federal government to ensure layers of protection are being established to achieve better air quality and a safer environment, especially in indoor settings. For example, a student recently successfully lobbied state legislators to budget $10 million to support, implement, and deliver air filtration to schools.

We also express our appreciation to public health departments and healthcare providers in California and our neighbors in Canada in following the scientific evidence and continuing to take COVID seriously and practically by reinstating universal masking in healthcare settings. More places should adopt this important step to protect patients and healthcare workers, especially with the upcoming season of another COVID surge. We also want to show our support to clinicians who continue to exercise and advocate for layers of protection.

Take Action

Schools must be a safe place of learning, which includes safety from infectious diseases. We urge residents in Massachusetts to sign this petition by the Mass Coalition of Health Equity to support safer schooling options that employ layers of protections. 

Amid ongoing COVID spread, masking remains essential to safe access to healthcare. As we prepare for CDC’s upcoming Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC) meeting in November, you can use this letter campaign to ask your elected officials to establish the highest standards of COVID protection in health care. We will be sending instructions to you in the next week on how to send written comments to HICPAC. Sign-up to receive our newsletter with these instructions.

And finally, because all of us need access to the updated COVID vaccines regardless of our insurance status or ability to pay, use our letter template to demand free COVID vaccines for uninsured and underinsured adults nationally.

Attention members of the American Public Health Association (APHA) Members past and present! Sign and share this petition to urge APHA leadership to pass a Palestinian Health Justice resolution at the 2024 national meeting, happening now in Minneapolis! Last year, APHA was one of the few national US health organizations to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. But this year, the APHA Governing Council refused to consider any resolution about Palestinian Health justice. As atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon reach new heights, a UN commission has declared Israel’s attacks to be “concerted policy to destroy Gaza’s healthcare system.” Sign and share the petition today!

Notes: 1) The numbers in this report were current as of 10/26/2024. 2) Check out the links throughout & see our website for more at https://peoplescdc.org. 3) Subscribe to our newsletter: People’s CDC | Substack.

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