People's CDC COVID-19 Weather Report

The Current Situation – “The Weather”:

We are in a sustained surge. BA.4 and BA.5 are continuing to spread and displace prior variants, particularly in the West and Midwest. The transmission map shows that 99% of people in the US continue to be at high or substantial transmission.

This map and corresponding table show COVID community transmission in the US by county. Most of the US map is red, indicating high levels at 95 percent of the population or 82 percent of counties. An additional 5 percent of the population or 12 percent of counties are in areas with substantial transmission, in orange. Thus, over 99 percent of the US population lives in an area with high or substantial COVID transmission. Only the middle vertical line of the contiguous US--the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas--show a higher concentration of moderate and low transmission, in yellow and blue, respectively. The graphic is visualized by the People’s CDC and the data are from the CDC.

Watch the spread here:

On Variants:

BA.4 and BA.5 continue to spread quickly, jumping from being 22% of all variants last week to 35% this week, as BA.2.12 and BA.2 recede.

A chart showing weeks 3/12/2022 through 6/18/2022 with levels for each viral lineage shown vertically. In mid March, BA.1.1 was the dominant lineage, with small levels of B.1.1.529 and BA.2. As time goes on, BA.2 starts to grow, and BA.1.1 and B.1.1.529 shrink. Around the end of March, BA.2.12.1 appears and then grows. In mid-May, BA.2.12.1 and BA.2 are equally found. By 5/21/2022, BA.2.12.1 overtakes BA.2 as the dominant variant. In early May, BA.4 and BA.5 appear, and together represent more than 30 percent of cases by 6/18/22.

Variant proportions change by region. The Northeast still has the largest proportion of BA.2.12, whereas BA.4/5 comprise about a quarter of variants. The West and Midwest see much larger proportions of BA.4/5, around one-third of variants.

A grayscale map of the US shows proportions of COVID variants in 10 regions with pink, red, light & dark green pie charts corresponding to different variants. The pie charts show that BA2.12, in red, is the largest proportion of variants in all regions. Since last week, the proportion of BA2, in pink, has decreased. BA4 & BA5, in light & dark green, respectively, are also present in each of the pie charts but are most prominent in Region 10, the Northwest; Region 9, California, Nevada, Arizona, the Pacific islands, & over 157 federally-recognized tribes; Region 6, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, & Texas, as well as 68 federally-recognized tribes; and the Midwest. On the bottom right, text says "Regional proportions from specimens collected the week ending 6/18/2022. US territories not shown are included in HHS regions: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands - Region 2; American Samoa, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam; Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau - Region 9."

Wastewater Monitoring:

Nationally, we are beginning to see a slight dip in wastewater levels, somewhat mirroring the levels of last year’s Delta surge. Regionally, there are small decreases in the Northeast and West while the South and Midwest are mostly stable.

A graph shows differences in wastewater viral concentration & daily clinical cases. At the top left is a legend. The top line, in solid blue, indicates viral concentration as determined by wastewater. The bottom line, in light blue, represents a daily average of clinical cases & follows the same pattern but is slightly lower throughout & much lower during large COVID waves. Bars in the same light blue color represent the total amount of clinical daily cases. There are small spikes in the graph in April 2020, January 2021, & September 2021, and a large spike in January 2022. The end of the graph shows low levels in April 2022 but a rapid increase until June 8th. More recently, there is a slight dip in numbers. For the most part, wastewater & cases lines track together, but the wastewater line rises sooner & moves higher than the cases line especially in recent spikes. At the bottom, text reads "Source: Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics, Inc; Clinical data from USAFacts."

Hospitalizations:

For 9 weeks in a row, hospitalizations continue to rise nationally, though still at relatively low levels (1.32 per 100,000 people).

Hospitalizations for those ages 70+ have been rising the fastest. This is the most vulnerable age group, and the fact that hospitalizations for this group have never been lower than other ages highlights the need for this country to do better for its elders.

A graph of new admissions per 100,000 population is indicated on the y-axis and by month, indicated on the x-axis. The graph breaks down hospitalization rates by 7 age groups and also shows all-age hospitalizations. The hospitalizations peak mid-January 2021, late March 2021, early September 2021, and early January 2022. January 2022 has the highest and sharpest peak at 8.38 admissions per 100,000. Hospitalizations decreased in February and March 2022 and have been increasing since, now hovering at around 1.5 to 2 admissions per 100,000. The group ages 70+ consistently has markedly higher hospitalization rates compared with other age groups; the group with the second highest hospitalization rates is the 60-69 year age group. — Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, White House COVID-19 Team, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup.

Escalation of anti-Asian racism is another COVID-related morbidity not well-tracked by authorities. While attacks are undercounted, there is no doubt that Asian Americans are suffering increased violence & mental health crises and deserve all of our solidarity & support.

Deaths:

In the past week, from June 16 to June 22, 1,787 people died of COVID nationally. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the moving average of daily deaths has never been less than 200.

Be Prepared:

If you are 50+ and haven’t received your 2nd booster yet, get it now. New CDC data shows that a 2nd booster means lower death rates. Data still holds that all vaccinated groups had lower death risk compared with unvaccinated.

Beware of reinfection. High levels of infections & reinfections among those vaccinated or with prior BA.1/2 infection is due to the evolution of BA.2.12 & BA.4/5 with substantial evasion of immune protection. New subvariants are causing continuing surges & reinfection risk.

Guidance on treating COVID for people living with HIV states that although clinicians must assess the potential for drug interactions, in most cases your medical provider can prescribe Paxlovid. You can also use this locator for the test-to-treat program.

If you are living with HIV and this is your first time having COVID, you can participate in the amfAR study, which is looking at how COVID may affect people with HIV over time. They will come to your home to collect blood samples. Learn more at CovidRecoveryStudy.org.

Forecast:

A new study shows increased risk with repeated COVID reinfections. While the study had a limitation in that it compared days 30-210 after the 1st infection vs. days 1-180 post-reinfection, it nevertheless showed COVID reinfections confer added risk of negative health outcomes.

Those outcomes included cumulatively increasing risk of hospitalization and a variety of additional adverse health outcomes including lung, heart, GI, and kidney issues, along with diabetes and fatigue in both the the acute and post-acute phases of reinfection.

A graph shows the cumulative risk and burden of health conditions such as hospitalization, cardiovascular, diabetes, fatigue, etc. in people with one, two, and three or more COVID infections compared to non-infected control. Adjusted hazard ratios (dots) and 95% confidence intervals (error bars) are presented, as are estimated excess burden (bars) and 95% confidence intervals (error bars).

Immunization options for children are expanding! This past week, children ages 6 months to 5 years old became eligible for COVID vaccines from Pfizer & Moderna. The CDC has endorsed a two dose Moderna vaccine for kids ages 6-17, joining Pfizer as a vaccine option for this group.

Exciting research on dogs’ ability to sniff out disease holds promise for early detection of COVID. While more dogs will need to be trained to scale this up, it would be an interesting intervention to increase COVID safety in community settings.

On Long COVID:

A recent study found lower odds of Long COVID with the omicron variant versus the delta variant. However, 4% of cases having Long COVID is still very high given the total number of individuals infected with omicron.

A new systematic review of #LongCovidKids found that 25% of children with Long COVID most commonly had mood symptoms, fatigue, and sleep disorders. Kids infected with COVID also had a higher risk of breathing, smell, and taste problems and/or fever compared to controls.

An image of the human body is shown along with lists of the more than 40 Long COVID symptoms that have been found in children and adolescents. Symptoms are listed in order of prevalence and a pie chart shows that the presence of one or more symptoms following a COVID infection was found in 25.24% of children.

A literature review on sex differences in Long COVID found higher risk of Long COVID overall and higher odds for ENT (ear, nose, throat), mood, neurological, dermatological, and other disorders for females. However, odds of endocrine and renal disorders were higher among males.

Over 40% of US adults have had COVID & nearly 1 in 5 (19%) have symptoms of Long COVID. 1 in 13 US adults have Long COVID, with new symptoms lasting 3 or more months post-infection.

Actions to Take!

@Pan_End_It encourages people to answer @usedgov‘s request for public comment on proposed amendments to #Section504. Comment on ways to improve and meet the needs of disabled students, especially on preventing infectious disease spread in class.

Check out and share our new info sheets!

We have fact sheets on layers of protection, masking, and how COVID spreads.

View them all here: https://bej.gbh.mybluehost.me/infosheets/.

People’s CDC COVID-19 Weather Report