People’s CDC COVID-19 Weather Report

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The Weather

The CDC-based wastewater map was updated on October 15 and depicts wastewater levels for the period from October 4 through October 10.

According to the CDC’s COVID Wastewater Viral Activity map, Mississippi, Washington, U.S. Virgin Islands, Oregon, and Florida are experiencing “Very High” levels. Tennessee, Montana, Hawaii, Georgia, Connecticut, South Carolina, and California are experiencing “High” levels. 14 states are experiencing “Moderate” levels, 10 states are experiencing “Low” levels and 13 states are experiencing “Very Low” levels.

Arizona, Arkansas, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota and Virginia are experiencing “Limited Coverage,” meaning that the data is based on less than 5% of the population and may not be accurate for the entire state. Oklahoma, North Dakota, Guam and Washington D.C. are reporting “Limited/No Data.”

A COVID wastewater map of the United States based on the CDC’s data. Heading level one text: “12 states and territories experiencing “high” or “very high” levels.” Heading level two text: “COVID wastewater map.” Subheading text: “October 4th - October 10th, 2026.” The following color codes depict viral activity levels from lowest to highest: “very low” in dark green, “low” in light green, “moderate” in yellow, “high” in pink, and “very high” in red. “limited/no data” is shown in gray. Florida, Mississippi, Oregon, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Washington are experiencing “very high” levels. California, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Montana, South Carolina and Tennessee are experiencing “high” levels. Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Texas and Rhode Island, are experiencing “moderate” levels. North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Guam have limited or no data. The remainder of the county is experiencing “low” or “very low” levels. Text at the bottom reads “Source: CDC / Data Updated: October 15 2026 / PeoplesCDC.orgGraphic source: CDC

Regional trend data from the CDC indicate a sharp decrease in Wastewater levels in the West which traversed the entire range of the “Moderate” tier in the past few weeks, falling from just below the “High” category to its current position of just above “Low.” The Northeast and Midwest have undergone more subtle decreases — from “Moderate” to “Low,” and from high point in “Very Low” to a slightly lower one in the same tier respectively. Levels in the South are experiencing a sharp increase to the upper portion of the “Moderate” tier, pushing the country wide average levels into “Moderate”.A line graph, based on CDC’s data. Heading level one: “Average national COVID wastewater level rises to “Moderate.”” Heading level two: “COVID Wastewater Trends.” The y-axis is COVID concentration levels, from bottom to top, goes from “very low” to “very high.” The x-axis lists dates, from left to right, going from August 2025 through October 10, 2026. The graph shows 2 previous waves in late summer 2025 and winter 2025-2026. Mid-summer 2026 shows a few months of every region of the US in “very low”, followed by an ongoing and still growing wave that started back around the start of July 2026. Midwest region is still “very low”. The northeast and national average have been fluctuating around the boundary between “low” and “moderate”. The West and South are averaging in the “moderate” now. Footer: “Source: CDC. Data updated October 15, 2026, peoplescdc.org.”Graphic source: CDC

As a reminder, these categories should not be thought of as corresponding to any person’s risk of catching COVID. Remember other scientists can look at similar data and, using different systems, come to alternate conclusions. At Wastewater SCAN, for example, the team has determined all regions to be in the “high” category.

Heading level 1: “All regions assigned category of “High” according to WastewaterSCAN.” Heading level 2: “COVID wastewater map.” Graphic depicts a map of the United States separated into four regions: West, Midwest, South, and Northeast. A key in the lower right corner indicates wastewater concentration levels: orange for high, yellow for medium, blue for low, green for not detected, and gray for not calculated. All regions are highlighted orange. There are individual wastewater treatment plants, indicated by dots, scattered across the map. The dots follow the same color key as regions. Most dots across all regions are high or medium, with some low or not calculated. There are no plants reporting “not detected”. Text at the bottom reads “Source: WastewaterSCAN, data accessed October 16, 2026, PeoplesCDC.org”Graphic source: Wastewater SCAN

Though CDC and WastewaterSCAN differ on what levels they choose to label as “High” vs “Low,” when referencing the graphs for the past few surges, both data sets tell similar stories. In both CDC and WastewaterSCAN’s data we see surges in late summer of 2025, in the winter holidays between November 2025 and March 2026, as well as a surge right now. Though there is some variation. WastewaterSCAN data shows the highest peak in national levels for this current surge has already surpassed the high point during the surge associated with the 25’/26′ winter holidays. CDC readins show the highest national point in this current surge as ~73% as high as the highest point from the 25’/26′ winter holidays.

Both data sets show that national levels from the surge of late summer 2025 were higher than the surge of the winter holidays 25’/26’. WastewaterSCAN shows the highest peak in our current national readings as ~43% as high as the highest national peak in late summer of 2025. CDC shows the highest peak in our current national readings as ~51% as high as the highest national peak in late summer of 2025.

When reading wastewater data it is important to examine the graphical representation of the data over time rather than reading the subjective/qualitative label of “High, “Low,” etc that is applied by an organization or researcher. It is critical to think of this current surge and its relation to prior events. In this case the current surge we find ourselves in is either more severe (WastewaterSCAN) or about 73% as severe (CDC) as the surge of the 25’/26’ winter holidays, when considering national levels. We should all be masking with an N95/KN95/KF94 or better in all public indoor spaces to keep levels down generally. The wastewater levels that we are experiencing right now are some of the highest that we have experienced in the past 24 months, but not as high as the national levels that we experienced in late summer 2025 or in the winter holidays of 24’/25’. From our current place in the surge, these levels could still grow. Now is a good time to take additional precautions to prevent the current levels from increasing further. 

It is also very important to look at data for your specific region. When looking at the WatewaterSCAN data, although our highest peak in national data in this current surge is higher than the highest national level from the winter 25’/26’ surge, the highest peak in the midwest from the 25’/26’ surge is notably ~4.75 times higher than our highest national level from this surge. In CDC data, the highest point in the midwest from winter 25’/26’ is ~2.35 times higher than our highest national level in this current surge.

A line graph, WastewaterSCAN Data. Heading level one text: “WastewaterSCAN data, similar to CDC data shows peaks in late summer 2025, winter holidays ‘25/’26, and now.” Heading level two text: “WastewaterSCAN COVID wastewater trends.” Subheading text, “All charts show quantity of nucleic-acids, PMMoV Normalized (x1 million).” The y-axis is COVID concentration levels, from bottom to top, goes from 0 to 1,400. The x-axis lists dates, from left to right, going from October 2024 through October 12, 2026. The national line on the graph peaks in Dec 2024-Jan 2025 (though not mentioned in heading), late summer 2025, Dec 2025-Feb 2026. From February 2026, and onwards the graph slopes down to a very low level until it starts going up in June and July 2026. At the current point in October of 2026, levels are increasing in the south and nationally, and decreasing in the northeast, midwest and west. Text at the bottom reads “Source: Wastewater SCAN Data Accessed: October 16, 2026 PeoplesCDC.org”Graphic source: Wastewater SCAN

To find the most relevant data to your area and get even more specific than your continental region or state, check out the wastewater station in the city that’s nearest to you. For example, for someone living in Detroit, MI, by searching your state in the “Location” section of the WastewaterSCAN graphs page, one finds that the nearest wastewater treatment plant that is reporting right now is in Warren, MI. If we look at the levels over the last year from the Warren plant, we see that they are not nearly as low as they were through most of the spring and summer, but lower than they were last year at this time and not nearly as high as they were last winter.

Higher or lower wastewater levels do not dictate whether or not a person will catch COVID when taking no precautions. Without a regular masking, vaccination and testing practice, an individual’s risk of catching COVID is still higher than one who does have practices in place, even when the readings are low for their area. When wastewater levels in our area are growing, it is important that we each use more layers of protection such as — becoming more rigorous with our masking practice, air purification, ventilation, moving events outdoors, contact tracing, and more frequent PCR, NAAT and rapid testing in order to interrupt the spread of would-be infections from higher levels of virus in our immediate population. The better we do, collectively, at stopping the spread in these moments, the less likely we are to have bigger surges.

A line graph, based on CDC’s data. Heading level one text: “Always check the levels for the wastewater treatment plant nearest to you.” Heading level two text: “COVID wastewater trends for Warren, Michigan.” The y-axis is SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid levels in Quantity of nucleic-acids, PMMoV Normalized (x1 million) going from 0 to 4,500. The x-axis lists months, from left to right, going from October 2024 to October 2026. The line graph peaks in December 2025. From February 2026, and onwards, the line graph goes down with occasional increases. In August 2026, levels began increasing again then decreased by early October. In December of 2025 the line graph peaks to its highest point and then gradually decreases from January to April. A much smaller peak arises in August of 2026 which, at the current moment, continues to gently rise and fall. Footer: “Source: WastewaterSCAN / Data accessed: October 16, 2026 / peoplescdc.org.”Graphic source: Wastewater SCAN

Please check out our Safer Gatherings Guide, which you can use for class, work, haunted houses, and any other gathering you may attend.

Epidemic Trends

According to CDC Epidemic Trend data, there is a probability that the number of infections is “Growing” or “Likely Growing” in 11 states, “Declining” or “Likely Declining” in 7 states and “Not Changing” in 33 states. There are no full states that are “Not Estimated.” Check out the estimation for the specific region of the state you are in, as it may differ from the estimation for the state as a whole.

These values are estimated from daily incident emergency department visits reported through the National Syndromic Surveillance Program. It can tell us whether a current epidemic trend is growing, declining, or not changing, and is an additional tool to help public health practitioners prepare and respond. It cannot tell us about the underlying burden of disease, just the trend in infections. An Rt < 1 does not mean that transmission is low, just that infections are declining. They could be declining from a high level to another slightly lower high level.

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of deep purple, purple, white and gray displaying the CDC COVID Model: Current Epidemic Growth Status based on emergency department visits as of October 14, 2026. Deep purple and purple tones indicate “Growing” and “Likely Growing”, deep teal and teal tones indicate “Declining” or “Likely Declining”, and white indicates “Not Changing.” Regions without predictions are represented in grey. The text above the map reads: “COVID Infections are growing or likely growing in 11 states.” Regions in Oregon and Indiana are represented in deep purple to indicate growing. The entire states of Arizona as well as regions in New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana, West Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts are represented in purple to indicate “likely growing”. Regions in Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, and the entire states of Wisconsin and Hawaii are represented in teal to indicate likely declining. The entire state of California and regions of Oregon, Nevada, Texas, Louisiana, New York and New Jersey are represented in deep teal to indicate declining. All remaining states and regions are represented in white, meaning not changing, or grey, meaning not estimated. Text at the bottom reads “Source: CDC / Data Updated: October 14, 2026 / PeoplesCDC.org.”Graphic source: CDC

Wins

On October 14th, Verily Health Inc announced the CDC’s renewal of their Wastewater contract. The CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System will continue! This contract’s renewal is no doubt a product of all of our calls to congress and to our representatives! 

CDC also announced the new wastewater testing contract on the National Wastewater Surveillance webpage and says that there will be a brief gap in data “that will affect ~200 sites as sampling, testing, and reporting are restarted.” We will continue to keep you posted as we learn more.

MAHA Updates:

The Senate HELP committee voted to advance the nomination of Radiologist and FOX News pundit Nicole Saphier to a senate-wide floor vote for Surgeon General. Dr. Saphier claims to be vaccine-supportive, but has also failed to say publicly that the vaccine-related policies and positions advanced by the Trump administration are wrong. Additionally she has praised RFK’s removal of the full recommendation of the COVID vaccine for children and an opponent of gender-affirming care, she has referred to being transgender as a “national emergency.” See our “Take Action” section for ways to reject Saphier’s election to Surgeon General.

Measles: 

The importance of being crystal clear about the safety and efficacy of Measles vaccines has never been greater. As a result of misinformation and disinformation campaigns and the consequential decreased uptake of vaccines, measles rates continue to climb. 

In the past two weeks the US has seen 574 new measles cases due to increases in 4 cities — Lancaster, Mifflin, and Chester, Pennsylvania, and Lafayette, Wisconsin. The state of Pennsylvania has accepted help from the CDC where their state Secretary of Health Debra Bogen has accused CDC director Erica Schwartz of not recording all of the deaths that are occurring. “By not acknowledging the deaths, the CDC obscures the seriousness of this disease and the toll of measles across the U.S.,” Bogan wrote in a letter to the CDC director. 

Of every 1000 kids who get measles, 1 to 3 will die. We must also acknowledge the severe complications that can come from non-deadly cases of measles, such as pneumonia, encephalitis, premature birth or low-birth weight babies, immune amnesia, and in rare cases subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) which is fatal 7-10 years after a measles infection. Measles is spread through direct contact with infectious droplets or through infectious aerosols. We can do our part to prevent spread by getting vaccinated, washing our hands, and… you guessed it! Masking with an N95/KN95/KF94 or better!  

A line graph, based on Johns Hopkins University data. Heading level one text: “measles cases rise by 574 in the past two weeks for a total of 4,603 cases this year.” Heading level two text: “Cumulative measles cases reported in the United States by year.” The y-axis is documented measles cases from 0 to 4500. The x-axis lists number of weeks into the calendar year from 0 to 52. Multiple lines are shown to indicate measles case counts over time per year from 2018 to 2026. The line for 2019 reaches about 1250 cases. The line for 2025 reaches just under 2500. The line for 2026 passes 4500, with some time left in the year for it to grow even more. The slope of the graph (representing the rate of measles case incidence) where the line currently ends is as steep as it has ever been on the graph. All other years are below 500. Footer: “Source: Johns Hopkins University. Data updated October 16, 2026, peoplescdc.org.”Graphic source: Johns Hopkins

Take Action!

Reject Nicole Saphier for Surgeon General!

Call your senators and ask them to oppose Nicole Saphier in the senate-wide floor vote for Surgeon General. She is transphobic and has expressed flip-flopping views on vaccine efficiency. She quite literally wrote the book on MAHA with her 2020 title Make America Healthy Again: How Bad Behavior and Big Government Caused a Trillion-Dollar Crisis, a book which puts the blame on the American individual’s choices, such as eating, drinking alcohol, and sitting rather than on ultra-expensive health insurance, high cost of living, and corporate pollution for the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The book’s description on Harper Collins reads “If Americans want to know why their health care is so costly and getting costlier they need only look in the mirror. […] We don’t need socialized medicine—we need to take better care of ourselves.” Notably, as a remedy for Americans “[not] tak[ing] care of [them]selves,” Saphier has created a dietary supplement company called DropRX which last year reported $270,605 in revenue. Both she and her husband also invest in large tobacco companies. Senators must reject this Surgeon General who blames Americans for being unwell in order to profit from them.

Organize in Your Community and Make Our Next Wins Section!

Talk to your friends and the people that you interact with every day about organizing. Ask the other parents at your kid’s school if they want to have a few meetings with administrators to talk about improving air quality. See if your colleagues want to join a call to speak with your union representatives about pushing for reinstating additional paid sick days for folks with COVID and a testing-based approach to returning to work. Coordinate a masked karaoke event for your tenants association. Write to us about what you’re working on, so we can celebrate you in our next “wins” section!

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The People’s CDC is a coalition of public health practitioners, scientists, healthcare workers, educators, advocates and people from all walks of life working to reduce the harmful impacts of COVID-19.

We provide guidance and policy recommendations to governments and the public on COVID-19, disseminating evidence-based updates that are grounded in equity, public health principles, and the latest scientific literature.

Working alongside community organizations, we are building collective power and centering equity as we work together to end the pandemic. The People’s CDC is volunteer-run and independent of partisan political and corporate interests and includes anonymous local health department and other government employees. The People’s CDC is completely volunteer run with infrastructure support being provided by the People’s Science Network.

Though the People’s CDC was supported initially through a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation grant, that grant has long expired. We no longer pursue or accept grant funding. We are now entirely funded by people who donate to us. Most of these donations make their way to us through our Substack platform (which anyone can access for free!) or through purchases of People’s CDC swag. Our website now has a donate link for anonymous donations.

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