People’s CDC COVID-19 Weather Report  

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Week of 5/23/2022

The Current Situation – “The Weather”: 

The latest COVID wave continues to flood the nation, with almost half of new cases caused by the BA2.12 variant.

About three-quarters of US counties have high or substantial transmission. Even the CDC’s “community level” maps, which indicate hospital capacity, are beginning to turn red in Puerto Rico, much of the Northeast, and parts of the Midwest and Hawaii.

A map of the United States by county, showing high transmission of COVID. Counties in New England, Florida, and Northern border states, and counties scattered in the Midwest, Nebraska, and the West Coast are heavily in red. In the top right is a gray text box, which states, "More than 94 percent of the U.S. population lives in an area with a substantial or high COVID-19 transmission level. In the bottom right is a table showing the percent of counties and percent of the population by various levels of transmission. 7.73 percent of counties, which have 0.57 percent of the population, have low transmission and are in the color blue. 19.64 percent of counties, which have 5.05 percent of the population, have moderate transmission and are in the color yellow. 17.03 percent of counties, which have 8.64 percent of the population, have substantial transmission and are in the color orange. 55.54 percent of counties, which have 85.74 percent of the population, have high transmission and are in the color red. At the bottom left, is the logo of the People’s CDC, a purple-red circle with "People's CDC" in white text inside. At the bottom right, text says "Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJvB1uTL_9Q

This video shows the evolution of 2022 transmission levels from March 18th – May 19th. While there was a brief lull in March, the Northeast begins turning red in early April and by the end of April, high levels have spread across the country. Now, most of the country is red.

Overall, this means almost 86 percent of US residents are living in a county with high transmission, up from 72 percent last week. Another 9 percent are living in an area of substantial transmission–together, 94 percent of US residents are now at increased risk.

On Variants:

In 2022, we’ve had 3 successive subvariants of Omicron wash over the country. BA2.12, first identified in the Northeast, is rapidly becoming the most common strain – now at 48 percent. 

A grayscale map of the United States describing proportions of COVID variants in 10 regions with pink and red pie charts. Each regional pie chart indicates a large number of cases comprised of the BA.2 variant, shown in pink, but there is an increasing proportion of cases comprised of the BA.2.12 variant, shown in red. The majority of the pie chart is in red in regions like the Northeast, 40-50 percent is in red in the East Coast, and 30-40 percent is red in the Midwest. On the bottom left, text says "Lineages called using pangolin version 4.0.6 and pangolin data version 1.8. Lineage BA.1.1 and its sublineages are aggregated with B.1.1.529 at the regional level as they currently cannot be reliably called in each region." On the bottom right, text says "Regional proportions from specimens collected the week ending 5/14/2022. US territories not shown are included in HHS regions Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands - Region 2; American Samoa, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam; Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau - Region 9. Updated May 17, 2022."

More subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, were discovered by South African scientists earlier this year and have now become variants of concern in the EU. BA.5 is projected to overtake other variants in Portugal by the end of May. 

These subvariants are already variants of concern in the US and it is not yet clear when these variants may overtake BA.2.12 in this country.

At the top, bold text says "Pathogen Progression." Below the title, text says, "A diagram showing how the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has evolved to spawn several related variants. The latest are BA.4 and BA.5 along the Omicron lineage, which has dominated infections this year." The diagram starts with the origin on the left and branches off toward the right into several other variants, including Delta, Delta-plus, Beta, Alpha, Gamma, Omicron, BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1. On the bottom left corner is the copyright logo of the Nature science journal. On the bottom right, text says "based on data from NextStrain."

Wastewater Monitoring:

Wastewater data does not rely on testing or reporting. Nationally, rates are clearly rising, with levels that are now about the same as they were in the middle of November 2021.

A graph demonstrating differences in wastewater viral concentration and daily clinical cases. At the top left is a legend. The top line, in solid blue, represents viral concentration as determined by wastewater. The bottom line, in light blue, represents a daily average of clinical cases and follows the same pattern but is slightly lower throughout and much lower during large COVID-19 waves. Bars in the same color represent the total amount of clinical daily cases. There are small spikes in the graph in April 2020, January 2021, and September 2021, and a large spike in January 2022. The end of the graph shows low levels in April 2022 but a small rapid increase to the current date. At the bottom, text reads "Source: Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics, Inc; Clinical data from USA Facts."

Most regions are rising, except the Northeast (highest numbers, in yellow) which may be stabilizing, followed by Midwest (purple) next, then South (pink). After an odd bump at the end of April, the West (aqua) is continuing to rise as well.

At the top, the title of the chart says “Covid-19 Wastewater Monitoring by Region.” Below the title, text says this chart depicts varying levels of COVID detected in wastewater samples across different regions of the U.S. Most recent data is from May 18th, 2022. Below this, text says “Wastewater: Effective SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration.” The measurement of this is defined as copies divided by milliliters of sewage. The chart displays trends in wastewater in the last 6 weeks, from April 2022 to May 2022. There are four lines showing wastewater trends. All of the lines start below a concentration of 250 at the beginning of April. The yellow line representing the Northeast shows the greatest rise in concentration over 6 weeks and is nearly double the lowest level, while rising steadily, exceeding 1,000 in concentration. The purple line representing the Midwest and pink line representing the South are rising steadily but slower. Concentration in the Midwest reached 750, it reached approximately over 600 in the South. The aqua line representing the West shows a small bump between the end of April and early May which dipped down slightly and has resumed slightly increasing, to a concentration of approximately 200. At the bottom of the chart the source is listed as Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics Inc. Clinical data from USA Facts.

Hospitalizations:

For the fourth week in a row, hospitalizations continue to increase nationally. In the Northeast, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, they already surpass peak hospitalizations from the Delta wave. Other regions may soon reach similar levels.

A graph of new admissions per 100,000 Population, indicated on the x axis, by month, indicated on the x axis, with various lines indicating different age groups. At the top, bold black text reads "New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19, United States." Below, text reads, "Aug 01, 2020 to May 19, 2022." At the bottom of the image is a legend. A solid yellow line indicates the age group 0 to 17 years. A dotted light blue line indicates the age group 18 to 29 years. A dashed teal blue line indicates the age group 30 to 39 years. A solid dark teal line indicates the age group 40 to 49 years. A dotted light pink line indicates the age group 50 to 59 years. A dashed darker pink line indicates the age group 60 to 69 years old. A solid purple line indicates the age group 70 years and older. And a dashed gray line indicates all ages. The number of hospital admissions per 100,000 people is higher by age group consistently across time.

Note: Data reported in the most recent 7 days (gray bar) should be interpreted with caution due to reporting delays.

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, White House COVID-19 Team, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup.

A graph of new admissions per 100,000 Population, indicated on the x-axis, by month, indicated on the x-axis. At the top, bold black text reads "New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19, United States." Below, text reads, "Aug 01, 2020 to May 19, 2022." The title of the graph "United States | All Ages" is near the top. A dashed gray line indicates the number of hospitalizations with peaks in January 2021 with 5 admissions per 100,000 people, shortly after July 2021 with almost 4 admissions per 100,000 people, and in January 2022 with more than 6 admissions per 100,000 people. To the farthest right are the values for the current day May 19, 2021, showing an increasing hospitalization rate.

Note: Data reported in the most recent 7 days (gray bar) should be interpreted with caution due to reporting delays.

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, White House COVID-19 Team, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup.

Nationally, hospitalizations are up for all age groups, without exception. Those ages 70+ are experiencing the sharpest rise. Hospitalizations for this group in the Northeast have already surpassed the highest point of the Delta wave. A few other regions are not far behind.  

A graph of new admissions per 100,000 Population, indicated on the x-axis, by month, indicated on the x-axis. At the top, bold black text reads "New Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19, United States." Below, text reads, "Aug 01, 2020 to May 19, 2022." The title of the graph "United States | 70 + years" is near the top. A solid purple line indicates the number of hospitalizations with peaks in January 2021 with almost 20 admissions per 100,000 people, shortly after July 2021 with about 8 or 9 admissions per 100,000 people, and in January 2022 with about 21 admissions per 100,000 people. To the farthest right are the values for the current day May 19, 2021, showing an increasing hospitalization rate among people aged 70 years and older.

Note: Data reported in the most recent 7 days (gray bar) should be interpreted with caution due to reporting delays.

Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, White House COVID-19 Team, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup.

Deaths:

Two weeks ago, the People’s CDC recognized that the US death toll had exceeded 1 million by many accounts. A few days later, the New York Times marked the grim milestone. The CDC continues to report slightly lower numbers, about 1,000 shy of 1 million. 

Older US residents ages 65+ contributed to three-quarters of the staggering death toll. 

A chart from the New York Times displays deaths by age bracket. Each age bracket is represented by a series of stacked rectangles in shades of gray. At the top of the stack, the first layer shows 219,603 deaths among those ages 85 and older. Below that is 228,970 deaths among those ages 75 to 84. Below that is 208,926 deaths among those ages 65 to 74. The last box is accented with a much darker gray color, showing 232,465 deaths among those ages 64 and under. Ages 65 and up comprise three-quarters of all COVID deaths.

Source: The New York Times

Contrasted with Asian & white groups, Black & Latinx people had the highest death rates of each age group. Indigenous & Pacific Islander communities likely suffered the highest death rates of all groups, though often not well-represented in national figures due to low numbers.

A bar graph showing COVID death rates grouped by age and race, showing that Black and Latinx people have had the highest death rates in all age groups, and that the majority of deaths have been among people aged 75 and older. At the top, bold black text reads "COVID-19 death rates by age and race." Below is a legend indicating 4 racial categories: tan for Asians, blue for white, red for Black people, and purple for Latinx people. On the left is the reverse y-axis, which increases in age, listing the categories ages 25 to 34, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 and above. In each category, Asians have the lowest number of deaths, then whites, then Black people, then Latinx people. In the center of the image, black text reads, "Black and Hispanic people have had the highest death rates in all age groups." At the bottom, text reads "Rates for White, Black, and Asian people exclude Hispanics. Rates for Native Americans and Pacific Islanders were less reliable because of low total counts and are not shown. Source: C.D.C."

Collective traumatic stress from COVID is common, but for older, disabled, poor & working class, and racially marginalized people, the trauma and impact of the pandemic are compounded. COVID is more than a natural disaster: it is also a political, economic, and social one.  

In the past week, from May 13th to 19th, 1,953 people died of COVID nationally. COVID deaths remain well above even the worst of flu seasons pre-COVID; it is the third leading cause of death in the US. 

Be Prepared, Whatever the Weather: 

Mask whenever you are indoors with people outside of your household or in crowded outdoor spaces, preferably with a more effective mask, like a KN95 or N95 if possible. Increase ventilation indoors by opening windows and/or using a HEPA filter (or creating your own filter). 

Vaccination & boosters are important layers of protection. The FDA recently authorized booster shots for children ages 5 to 11, which the CDC greenlit. However, we still need vaccines for children under 5 and more importantly, updated vaccines that match these variants.

For those who test positive for COVID and have access to a healthcare provider, COVID treatments are available. The People’s CDC stands in solidarity and rage with those who do not have access to healthcare. 

We want to amplify the work of people and organizations fighting for universal healthcare and alternative models of care including @HCNow, @PNHP, and @abdulelsayed. 

Forecast: 

Mask mandates may return, as they have in Philadelphia schools. There has also been resistance and denial in responding to the CDC alert levels, like in NYC, despite guidance that a high alert level should trigger indoor masking. 

As we continue to say, we need layers of protection to face this pandemic; otherwise cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will continue to skyrocket.

On the horizon: The FDA approved an at-home test that can detect multiple respiratory viruses: COVID, flu, & RSV. However, patients have to mail in their specimens, which is less convenient than the now widely-available at-home COVID antigen tests.

On Long COVID: 

Long COVID is likely to be associated with the reactivation of dormant viruses already inside one’s body. That is, a virus that is normally well-contained by the body is essentially “woken up” and begins causing symptoms. One such virus is the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), which is the virus that causes mono. About 90 percent of adults in the US have EBV living quietly in their bodies. Reactivation of EBV should be rare and even then, experiencing symptoms with this reactivation is supposed to be even rarer. However, Long COVID is showing us that this may not be the case any longer, and this reactivation can be quite debilitating. 

Krista Coombs, who has been living with Long COVID since March 2020, describes what it’s like now experiencing reactivated EBV:

“I have reactivated EBV and [Cytomegalovirus] which cause many symptoms. I have had vision problems since the beginning of getting sick and everything is constantly blurry, whether it’s near or far. It has been really concerning to me. I also have had numerous headaches unlike any I have experienced before.” 

Despite what the CDC and government officials say, it’s clear that COVID is often not mild. While it is not certain if SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) is directly causing this reactivation, it’s another piece in the complex puzzle of Long COVID that research must investigate so patients can begin to understand what is happening to them and receive the treatment they require.

Tiny Tip: Residential households in the US may now order an additional 8 free rapid antigen COVID test kits via the USPS website.

Sources (in order):

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