People's CDC COVID-19 Weather Report

The Current Situation – “The Weather”:

We are in a sustained surge. While BA2.12 has reached its peak in many areas, BA4/5 have arrived & are causing increased cases. The transmission map shows 99% of people in the US continue to be at high/substantial transmission.

This map and corresponding table show COVID community transmission in the US by county. Most of the US map is red, indicating high levels at 96 percent of the population or 80 percent of counties. An additional 3.2 percent of the population or 11 percent of counties are in areas with substantial transmission, in orange. Nearly 99 percent of the US population lives in an area with high or substantial COVID transmission. Only the middle vertical line of the contiguous US--the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas--show a higher concentration of moderate and low transmission, in yellow and blue, respectively. The graphic is visualized by the People’s CDC and the data are from the CDC.

Watch the video spread here:

On Variants:

Cases this year have been driven by wave after wave of new variants. Just as BA2.12 was becoming the major strain in the US (at 64%), BA4/5 have emerged (at 22%) & are rapidly growing.

A chart showing weeks 3/12/2022 through 6/11/2022 with levels for each viral lineage shown vertically. In mid March, BA.1.1 was the dominant lineage, with small levels of B.1.1.529 and BA.2. As time goes on, BA.2 starts to grow, and BA.1.1 and B.1.1.529 shrink. Around the end of March, BA.2.121 appears and then grows. In mid-May, BA.2.121 and BA.2 are equally found. By 5/21/2022, BA.2.121 overtakes BA.2 as the dominant variant. In early May, BA.4 and BA.5 appear, and together represent more than 20 percent of cases by 6/11/22.

There are regional differences – the Northeast still has the largest proportion of BA2.12, while the West/Midwest see much larger proportions of BA4/5. BA2.12 seems to have peaked in most areas according to this data.

A grayscale map of the United States describing proportions of COVID variants in 10 regions with pink, red, light green, and dark green pie charts corresponding to different variants. The regional pie charts demonstrate that BA.2.12 variant, shown in red, is the largest proportion of all variants in all regions. Since the last time we showed this map, the proportion of pink representing the BA.2 variant has decreased in all regions. Light green representing BA4 and dark green representing BA5 are also present in each of the pie charts, but are most prominent in Region 10, the Northwestern-most states; Region 6 representing Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, as well as 68 federally recognized tribal nations; and the Midwest. On the bottom right, text says "Regional proportions from specimens collected the week ending 6/11/2022. US territories not shown are included in HHS regions: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands - Region 2; American Samoa, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam; Marshall Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau - Region 9. Updated June 14, 2022."

Wastewater Monitoring:

Nationally, wastewater levels are plateauing at about the same level as last year’s Delta surge. Regionally, there is a small decrease in the Northeast while other areas are mostly stable.

A graph demonstrating differences in wastewater viral concentration and daily clinical cases. At the top left is a legend. The top line, in solid blue, represents viral concentration as determined by wastewater. The bottom line, in light blue, represents a daily average of clinical cases and follows the same pattern but is slightly lower throughout and much lower during large COVID waves. Bars in the same light blue color represent the total amount of clinical daily cases. There are small spikes in the graph in April 2020, January 2021, and September 2021, and a large spike in January 2022. The end of the graph shows low levels in April 2022 but a rapid increase to the present. For the most part, the wastewater and cases lines track together, but the wastewater line rises sooner and moves higher than the cases line in fall of 21 and again with the latest spike. At the bottom, text reads "Source: Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics, Inc; Clinical data from USA Facts."

Hospitalizations:

For 8 weeks in a row, h ospitalizations are rising nationally, though still at relatively low levels (1.3 per 100,000 people). Hospitalizations seem to have peaked in the Northeast but are continuing to rise in other regions.

A graph of new admissions per 100,000 population is indicated on the y-axis and by month, indicated on the x-axis. At the top, black text reads "United States; All Ages" The hospitalizations peak mid-January 2021, late March 2021, early September 2021, and early January 2022. January 2022 has the highest and sharpest peak at 8.38 admissions per 100,000. Hospitalizations decreased in February and March 2022 and have been increasing since, now hovering at around 1.5 to 2 admissions per 100,000. — Source: Unified Hospital Dataset, White House COVID-19 Team, Data Strategy and Execution Workgroup.

Deaths:

In the past week, from June 9 to June 15, 1,862 people died of COVID nationally. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the moving average of daily deaths has never been less than 200.

Be Prepared:

In the face of multiple new variants, we continue to recommend layers of protection – vaccines/boosters, high-quality masks, improved ventilation, and access to testing. We also need updated vaccines, paid sick leave, and research into Long COVID treatment & prevention.

Improving indoor air quality in schools could reduce COVID & influenza! And yet, according to the CDC, most US public schools have made no major investments in indoor ventilation since the pandemic began. Ask your school board what they are doing to keep kids safer!

One spot of good news: By unanimous vote, the FDA recommended both Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for children 6 months through 5 years. While these vaccines are still designed for the original strain, they are an important tool that children deserve access to!

In fact, data this week highlighted that COVID is much worse than the flu for children, in terms of both hospital admissions and death rates.

This is a bar graph labeled “Patient Volumes and Outcomes From Influenza and SARS-CoV-2- Related Disease in 66 Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs).” The y-axis shows “Children, number/quarter” and ranges from 0 to 400 by intervals of 50. Along the x-axis, the data are grouped, from left to right: All patients; patients with comorbidity; patients without comorbidity. In each of these groups are data for admissions and intubations. For all patients, there were just under 200 admissions for the flu and nearly 400 admissions for COVID. The number of children who were intubated with the flu appears to be about 40 and for COVID is about 50. In the comorbidity group, admissions were just over 100 for the flu and about 175 for COVID. Intubations are about 25 for flu and about 30 for COVID. In the no comorbidity group, admissions were about 90 for the flu and over 200 for COVID. Intubations were around 10 for flu and slightly higher for COVID.

Likewise, the FDA vaccine review highlighted the increased risk of hospitalization for young children during the Omicron surge.

This line graph is labeled “COVID-19 associated hospitalization rates among infants and children ages 0-4 years, by age group” and shows a 3-week moving average. The y-axis shows “hospitalizations per 100,000 infants and children aged 0-4” and goes from 0 to 65. The x-axis shows weeks from March 29 2020 to Jan 29 2022. There are three lines on the graph. A dotted blue line represents children aged 2 to 4, and travels at low levels until Jan 2022 when in increases to around 5 and then decreases again. A solid blue line representing children 6 to 23 months travels at low levels until January 2020 when it increases to almost 15 and then decreases again. A black solid line representing children under 6 months of age has a baseline moving from 2 to 6 throughout but increases to above 10 around December of 2020, and again in September 2021. It increases again more dramatically to above 60 in January 2022 and has since fallen with the most recent data point shown being about 15.

Forecast:

Infection with Omicron does not boost immunity against the variant later. A study in Science found that “people who had previously been infected [with Omicron] are not immune boosted against a subsequent infection with the variant, and potentially its subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.”

The relationship between prior infections, vaccination, and immunity to Omicron is increasingly complex. However, we are concerned there is potential for sustained high case levels throughout the summer, as new variants continue to spread while providing little to no protection.

On Long COVID:

So far, there are three leading theories behind what causes Long COVID: microscopic clots, lingering virus, or an overactive immune system. These are likely related to one another, and there is still much to understand about this enduring, complicated condition.

In addition, researchers report that brain fog, a common symptom of Long COVID, may be related to brain plaques similar to those seen in Alzheimer’s.

Sources (in order):

Or check out the links on our web version: https://bej.gbh.mybluehost.me/reports/